The lifting of zero-covid policies in China, extreme weather events caused by climate change, and the continued conflict in Ukraine have increased upside risks to our baseline price forecasts for 2023.
EIU’s latest report, Commodities outlook 2023, provides businesses with foresight of the critical global trends and threats that will affect commodity prices in the year ahead.
The stark increase in energy costs will have a significant impact on the competitiveness of European industry next year. This will mainly be felt in the form of lost global market share, but the severity will vary across sectors.
The Middle East faces mixed prospects in 2023. Although the Gulf Co-operation Council states will continue to benefit from international energy market developments, price pressures will weigh heavily on economic growth and stability elsewhere.
Several years of strong export growth in Asia will reverse in 2023, with the EU entering a recession and the US economy forecast to slow sharply. The outlook for domestic demand will also be challenging as interest-rate rises filter through local economies.
Africa is expected to avoid a major economic downturn next year, with growth of 3.2% in the north of the continent and the sub-Sahara. However, real GDP growth rates will vary considerably across the region, and some states will stagnate and teeter on the brink of recession.
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